Activities and Findings
نویسندگان
چکیده
Research and Education Activities: a) Bayesian Model Synthesis (Steven MacEachern and Mario Peruggia, with student Qingzhao Yu) We address the problem of how to conduct a legitimate Bayesian analysis while still allowing one to develop likelihood and prior by exploring the data. The methodology is based on a principle of data splitting, whereby several analysts examine portions of a data set, with each producing a Bayesian summary. The individual analyses are synthesized by means of formal Bayesian methods, implemented with the aid of Monte Carlo simulation. A theoretical development describes performance of data splitting for an abstraction of individual data analyses; success of the method is demonstrated empirically through application of the methodology to several data sets.
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